AdaptIT, Gijima and PanAf
AdaptIT (ADI) was originally called 'Infowave' and, for the better part of a decade and a bit, has just ticked along on the JSE earning reasonable profits and paying reasonable profits.
As an application and software business, Infowave had carved out a niche for itself in the sugar industry. The business had the awkward position of being big fish in a small pond, as its position servicing the sugar industry seemed secure, but expansion into other industries and capturing other clients (i.e. growth) was therefore also pretty limited.
Hence, enter AdaptIT (Pty) Ltd which Infowave acquired in late 2007 and changed its own name to that of AdaptIT. The Group then proceeded to acquire a number of other related software and IT businesses and has actually built an interesting technology group, though perhaps one that is a little over-reliant on SAP and large contracts.
On that last note, AdaptIT released a trading update indicating that it expects its its H1:11 EPS and HEPS to rise to between 5.5cps and 6.3cps from its H1:10 EPS of 3.4cps and HEPS of 3.6cps.
At worst, that is a very healthy 53% rise in profits.
The problem is that AdaptIT's revenues and profits can be hugely effected by large once-off contracts. My guess is that during H1:11 a large SAP-related contract landed in their lap and they have earned healthily off it. The real question is what will H2:11 be like? Perhaps some of the assumed large contract revenues will go through that, but then what about FY 13?
Hence my problem with AdaptIT and thus the reason why the share on an apparently attractive forward PE of roughly between 5.9x and 7.4x is still not necessarily on my buying list.
Another ICT group, Gijima, also released a trading update yesterday indicating that it expects its H1:12 EPS and HEPS to be between 3.0cps and 3.2cps, up from its 'Who Am I Online" contract dispute induced loss of 28.3cps during H1:11.
The real problem is that Gijima then goes on to explain how the profits for this period have been impacted by some once-offs that include the reversal of an unexpected accrual, internal costs for the implementation of a new 'client centric' business model, and unrealized forex impacts. The first reason worries me with the "unexpected" part, as it shows a lack of foresight or controls from management's side. The second reason is really just an excuse. And the final reason should have been hedged and is really a rubbish reason.
Altogether, a nice change from writing-off most of Gijima's equity during H1:11 with a massive avoidable loss, but not the strongest trading update out there.
At Thebe Stockbroking, I have put out a HOLD on Gijima, not least of which is due for qualitative reasons too.
Finally, the only gold stock in my portfolio, Pan African Resources Plc (PAN) has released a trading update basically indicating that its Rand profits (because it also reports in GBP into the LSE's AIM market) will double.
PAN goes on to say that "...EPS and HEPS, calculated in South African Rand ("ZAR"), using the average ZAR: GBP exchange rate of 12.06 that prevailed during the six months ended 31 December 2011, are expected to be between 97% and 107% higher than the comparable period's 5.97cps at an average ZAR: GBP exchange rate of 11.18."
PAN rallied on this news to a 12m high of 212cps before closing up 7% to 204cps.
Still my favourite gold stock with the added premium of having a wonderful little platinum project in the mix too. And, if you think about it, PAN's platinum project only came on line in late November/early December, thus it will only contribute (at most!) a single month to PAN's H1:12 results that caused this magnificent trading update.
So, H2:12 -- when PAN's Phoenix PGM project will contribute for the full six months -- should see even greater upside.
Yes, I am talking my book here as I hold PAN shares, but I see absolutely no reason to sell at these levels. I want to see H2:12's PGM contribution (and its potential upside in PAN) and, then, I still want to see a full year's contribution from the same project in FY 13!
All of these should be profit enhancing, thus upside events for PAN shareholders.
So, yes, I am talking my book, but, no, I will not be selling PAN at these levels.
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